Microsoft’s latest voluntary departure program has brought renewed attention to a question facing workers across many industries: how will artificial intelligence change their careers?

Around 60,000 employees—approximately 27% of Microsoft’s global workforce—are eligible for voluntary buyouts, according to Associated Press reporting. That figure reflects the number receiving the option, not a confirmed total of eliminated jobs.

The announcement has also revived discussion of Bill Gates’s predictions about AI. However, claims that just four professions will survive go further than the evidence supports.

What Microsoft has announced

In an announcement dated October 26, 2026, Microsoft chief people officer Amy Coleman outlined a voluntary exit offer for eligible employees in participating teams across Canada, India, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The program covers staff at level 70 and below and provides financial assistance and career planning resources. Availability varies by team, depending on business priorities and workforce needs.

Microsoft described the initiative as a way to help its organizations adapt while giving employees considering departure additional support. Its announcement did not say that AI would replace every employee who accepts the offer.

What Bill Gates said about human work

During his February 2025 appearance on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, Gates discussed a future in which AI could make services such as tutoring and medical advice much more widely available.

He also suggested that automation could eventually handle much of the work involved in manufacturing, transportation, and food production. At the same time, he argued that people would choose to preserve some activities for humans, using baseball as an example.

Those comments expressed a broad prediction about technology and human choice. They did not establish a definitive list of four careers guaranteed to remain safe from automation.

What Microsoft’s jobs research actually measures

A separate Microsoft Research study examined 200,000 anonymized conversations with Bing Copilot to explore how people use generative AI for work-related activities.

Researchers found that gathering information, writing, explaining and advising were prominent uses. They developed an AI applicability score to assess how those capabilities overlap with activities performed in different occupations. Knowledge work, administrative support and sales were among the areas showing substantial overlap.

The researchers subsequently clarified that their findings do not establish which jobs will disappear. A tool’s usefulness for some tasks does not demonstrate that it can perform an entire occupation, and an applicability measure should not be read as a worker’s probability of losing their job.

For workers, the distinction matters. AI’s ability to assist with a report, answer a question, or produce a draft tells us something about how work could change. It does not, by itself, tell us how many people an employer will hire or retain.

Microsoft’s departure program is a concrete workforce decision. Predictions about the eventual disappearance of whole professions remain far less certain.

Top 40 most exposed jobs to AI

Interpreters and translators — 98%

Historians — 91%

Mathematicians — 91%

Proofreaders — 91%

Automatic machine coders — 90%

Writers and authors — 85%

Statistical assistants — 85%

Sales representatives — 84%

Technical writers — 83%

Journalists — 81%

Passenger attendants — 80%

Telephone operators — 80%

Editors — 78%

Farm and home management educators — 77%

Political scientists — 77%

Data scientists — 77%

Geographers — 77%

Announcers and radio DJs — 74%

Brokerage clerks — 74%

Web developers — 73%

Customer service representatives — 72%

New accounts clerks — 72%

Ticket agents and travel clerks — 71%

Market research analysts — 71%

Concierges — 70%

Business teachers — 70%

Personal financial advisors — 69%

Economics teachers — 68%

Management analysts — 68%

Switchboard operators — 68%

Telemarketers — 66%

Advertising sales agents — 66%

Archivists — 66%

Public safety telecommunicators — 66%

Library science teachers — 65%

Demonstrators and product promoters — 64%

Models — 64%

Public relations specialists — 63%

Counter and rental clerks — 62%

Hosts and hostesses — 60%